Economic Growth and Drivers of Deforestation in the Congo Basin

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: population increases (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); local and regional development; and the rise in global demand for commodities.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty, while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region's natural capital.

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis, led by the World Bank Africa Region, of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). A team from the International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis (IASA) led a modeling exercise, based on th GLOBIOM model but tailored to the Congo region, to investigate drivers of deforestation by 2030 and assess the impacts of various "policy shocks" (such as: increased international demand for biofuel; improved transportation infrastructure; improved agricultural technologies; etc). The approach also relied heavily on the inputs from multi-stakeholder regional workshops.

MAIN FINDINGS

• ƒDeforestation rates are likely to increase in the future to sustain development and poverty reduction.
• ƒƒIncreasing agricultural productivity is not sufficient to limit pressure on forests.
• ƒƒWood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoal production will continue to grow for the next few decades and could create a massive threat to forests in densely populated areas.
• ƒƒThe development of much-needed transportation infrastructure could lead to major deforestation, mainly by changing economic dynamics in newly accessible rural areas.
• ƒƒThe pressure from formal logging is limited, but informal chainsaw logging is expected to progressively degrade forests.
• ƒƒMining—a largely untapped source of income and growth—could also lead to significant impacts when the sector develops.

<