CHALLENGE

The international development community is increasingly demanding better evidence regarding the effectiveness of policies and programs across different sectors, and the forest sector is no exception. Governments and donor agencies explicitly seek to link investment to proven impact. Yet, the evidence base necessary to inform policies and programs in the sector that can successfully enhance the livelihoods of forest-dependent poor populations, foster economic growth, reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation, and conserve forest biodiversity remains weak. There is a particular need to identify robust, yet practical, indicators to track and assess the impacts of forest-related investments.

Any attempt to identify such indicators must grapple with two particular challenges in the forest sector. First, forest-related interventions are usually complex, with forestry policies, programs and projects often including multiple objectives, requiring the integration of socioeconomic and ecological expertise, and entailing processes that unfold over different spatial scales. Second, such interventions often take a long time to show results. For example, the results of investments in thinning, tree stand improvement or natural regeneration under sustainable forest management are unlikely to be evident for 10 to 30 years. These characteristics make attribution of impacts to specific interventions (as opposed to other potential factors) especially difficult within the forest sector.

APPROACH

This activity will build from the extensive evidence accumulated within the World Bank’s forests portfolio, PROFOR activities and other relevant donor-supported initiatives to address these challenges and develop guidance on the identification and use of proxy indicators for project impacts. In so doing, the Activity seeks to increase understanding among policymakers, practitioners and applied researchers of the potential short-term proxy indicators for longer-term impacts of forest sector investments and how they may be used in practice.

The Activity began by undertaking an inventory of indicators used by key actors in the sector and reviewing the available literature on proxy indicators (sometimes referred to as “lead” or “predictive” indicators). An in-depth review of the World Bank portfolio of forest operations under the current Forests Strategy (2002-present) and a relevant subset of the PROFOR portfolio lies at the heart of this Activity. Results will provide the core evidence base for a report on predictive proxy indicators (PPIs) and the conditions in which they are likely to be valid. Through this review, the activity will also analyze potential constraints to the use of indicators in donor-supported forest interventions and suggest ways these constraints might be addressed.

RESULTS

The Working Paper "Understanding Long-Term Impacts in the Forest Sector: Predictive Proxy Indicators" is now available (download at left). The main overall finding is that predictive proxy indicators do appear to exist and can be used in practice. Given the complexity and diversity of the forest sector and novelty of the task, this conclusion was far from a certainty when this research began. The authors identified a range of potential PPIs, several of which have already been used in World Bank forest projects. These PPIs focused primarily at the Project Development Objective (PDO) and Global Environment Objective level, although some intermediate-level indicators were identified.

The report argues that robust PPIs can provide an important ex-ante evaluation tool that enables practitioners and researchers to predict future outcomes and longer-term impacts if certain assumptions hold. To help inform the design and implementation of forestry operations and knowledge, we developed a list of top ranking indicators based on an assessment of their predictive potential and their SMART score. These indicators are presented in an indicator menu organized by major objective (that is, relating to poverty, biodiversity, climate, or governance) and including brief notes on how they might be used. The indicator menu is presented as an annex and represents a key product stemming from this analytical work.

This review did not identify any standalone “silver bullet” predictive proxies, but a major contribution is the idea that multiple indicators, considered together, can have strong predictive potential. The report describes a series of seven indicator clusters that form PPIs. 

PPIs are already being integrated into new World Bank projects, such as the Argentina Forests and Community Project. This initiative aims to increase access to markets and basic services by small forest producers, including indigenous people and campesinos, in Argentina’s comparatively poor but forest-rich Northern provinces. Activities will focus on helping communities to develop Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) plans and to strengthen their tenure. To assess effectiveness, the project team will collect data on the three indicators under the Sustainable Forest-Related Income PPI. The project will also be assessed using rigorous impact evaluation methods, making it the first forward-looking test case of how well the forestry PPIs perform as predictors of future outcomes.​

Program Summary

The International Financing Facility for Forests (IFFFor) is a proposed mechanism designed to fill an incentive gap in the effort to combat deforestation. The IFFFor is a long-term investment fund, which will offer financial incentives to forest countries to preserve and restore the world’s most valuable forests. This would contribute to combatting climate change, preserving biodiversity, and enhancing economic development of forest countries.

Conceived by the World Bank Treasury and developed by the Center for Global Development (CGD), the IFFFor is currently being co-financed by PROFOR and the Rockefeller Foundation. Currently, this activity aims to develop IFFFor and explore its feasibility by building support across internal and external stakeholders and developing the investment case for different types of target investors.

Challenge

Despite intensifying global conservation efforts, deforestation continues at unsustainable rates. In addition, investments to protect forests have been insufficient due to the following:

• Limited foreign assistance for promoting the development benefits of forests;
• Compensation for forests’ public goods is primarily focused on carbon – and even those programs are underfunded compared to the value of the services that forests provide;
• Progress in “greening” trade and investment in forest-risk commodities has been slow;
• Domestic subsidies and international investments in “grey” agricultural practices that drive deforestation far outweigh “green” investments that help maintain forests.

Approach

IFFFor aims to offer countries a large, highly-visible reward for successfully tackling deforestation. Specifically, IFFFor proposes to raise significant non-ODA investments and manage that capital in an endowment-like fund. Shares of the portfolio’s gains would then be allocated to forest countries, conditional on their success in reducing and reversing forest loss.

The team is developing IFFFor in a three-phased approach:

1. analysis of design feasibility and review of the concept;
2. detailed modeling analysis and external consultations; and
3. fundraising and launch of the facility.

Results

This activity has concluded with the following key outputs:

A suite of communications products that will continue to be adapted and refined for specific audiences and purposes going forward.

Outreach Plan: The team mapped out key stakeholder groups and sequenced the approach phases to build awareness and seek feedback to improve design and materials. The strategy includes the identification of key global events to showcase IFFFor and seek broader support.

Target stakeholders who have been identified, consulted, or acted as partners include World Bank departments, co-conveners, sovereign investors, environmental nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with influential forest mandates, and forest country beneficiaries of the fund.

Advanced analytical work:

• Financial options assessment: The World Bank Treasury modeled financial scenarios of portfolio composition, performance and timeline
• ESG investing assessment: The World Bank Treasury modeled fund performance based on the application of investing rules to screen for environmental impact (e.g., fossil fuel free fund).
• Performance assessment and rewards allocation options: The IFFFor team created technical scenarios for forest country selection and scenarios for rewards allocation that offer sufficient incentive to counter deforestation pressures.
• Climate finance narrative: The IFFFor team clarified how IFFFor will complement or align with existing climate finance mechanisms, including the global REDD+ process. 
• Budget accounting research: Analysis commenced on the budget accounting and financial reporting implications of investing in IFFFor for EU member countries, the United States, and Japan.

Next Steps:

In 2020, the project will complete its internal review and begin external outreach to target investor countries, forest countries, and key CSO stakeholders/partners. This second outreach effort will culminate in a final design and public announcement.

CHALLENGE

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is home to some of the most diverse forests in Europe with over one hundred tree species. 80% of these forests are state-owned, with the remainder owned by a number of individual private owners. The country’s rural population, estimated at 2 million, regards the forest sector as an important source of employment, as well as energy (fuelwood for heating, primarily from forest residues), non-timber forest products (NTFPs, e.g., mushrooms, berries and herbs) and recreation. The forest sector has also been used as a social safety net for vulnerable populations including the elderly, unemployed, war veterans and survivors of recent conflicts. However, productive forest lands are currently under-harvested and underutilized, with forest management plans prescribing a very conservative Annual Allowable Cut (AAC). Some 17 percent of the country’s forest areas are classified as low, degraded forests, while 6 percent is classified as underutilized pasture land or bare landscapes, where natural regeneration to a forest structure could take place, given the right conditions. Therefore, there is great potential to improve both the forest stock in the country and the management of its forests with the overall goal of generating employment and income from the sector. Consequently, improved forest management would allow BiH to take advantage of “use” values (from timber and other products) to provide income for the local population while protecting its “non-use” values (associated with watershed protection and global ecosystem values).

APPROACH

The focus of this research centers on the evaluation of each link in the wood processing supply chain for selected product(s) in BiH (in terms of material inputs, labor, costs, etc.) in order to understand the potential for improving efficiencies at each of these steps. An assessment of cost factors will be conducted and offer options to address competitiveness with other important countries in the region supplying the European Union with timber. This analysis will be provided in order to provide a strong basis for wood value chain optimization in the future.

The following planned activities will be undertaken over the course of 12 months:

1. Selection of supply chain(s) of focus (i.e. energy wood, construction, and furniture, among other uses), defining the methodology(ies) to be used and planning of data collection;
2. Modelling supply chain dynamics and relationships between actors along the supply chain;
3. Analysis and preparation of country report and recommendations;
4. Contribution to global knowledge and methodological development;
5. Dissemination of the findings at multiple scales

RESULTS

The final report has been completed. The activity held a workshop to present the report findings to key stakeholders and Government counterparts in 2018. More dissemination and client engagement have been deferred to a later stage to coincide with planned consultations during project preparation. Findings of this activity show that:

• The primarily pristine forest estate annually sequesters some 6.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent, and provides important local ecosystem functions such as flood management.
• BiH forest production is potentially competitive in European markets for raw logs (71.2% of export to EU market).
• The investment requirements for forest roads, harvesting, and subsequent replanting far exceed the current cash flow of the forest companies.
• Priority should be placed on extracting higher value from existing production (e.g., less to fuelwood and more to higher value-added supply chain options
• Non-wood products are especially important in improving rural livelihoods for women and other vulnerable segments of the population
• BiH is well positioned to take advantage of the value-added opportunities for medicinal and aromatic plant resources.
• Reforms to the business model for extractive forestry are needed, focusing on multiple avenues including primarily: (i) increased revenue capture and retention; (ii) improved access to foreign capital; and, (iii) reduced social overheads.

CHALLENGE

Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is home to some of the most diverse forests in Europe with over one hundred tree species. 80% of these forests are state-owned, with the remainder owned by a number of individual private owners. The country’s rural population, estimated at 2 million, regards the forest sector as an important source of employment, as well as energy (fuelwood for heating, primarily from forest residues), non-timber forest products (NTFPs, e.g., mushrooms, berries and herbs) and recreation. The forest sector has also been used as a social safety net for vulnerable populations including the elderly, unemployed, war veterans and survivors of recent conflicts. However, productive forest lands are currently under-harvested and underutilized, with forest management plans prescribing a very conservative Annual Allowable Cut (AAC). Some 17 percent of the country’s forest areas are classified as low, degraded forests, while 6 percent is classified as underutilized pasture land or bare landscapes, where natural regeneration to a forest structure could take place, given the right conditions. Therefore, there is great potential to improve both the forest stock in the country and the management of its forests with the overall goal of generating employment and income from the sector. Consequently, improved forest management would allow BiH to take advantage of “use” values (from timber and other products) to provide income for the local population while protecting its “non-use” values (associated with watershed protection and global ecosystem values).

APPROACH

The focus of this research centers on the evaluation of each link in the wood processing supply chain for selected product(s) in BiH (in terms of material inputs, labor, costs, etc.) in order to understand the potential for improving efficiencies at each of these steps. An assessment of cost factors will be conducted and offer options to address competitiveness with other important countries in the region supplying the European Union with timber. This analysis will be provided in order to provide a strong basis for wood value chain optimization in the future.

The following planned activities will be undertaken over the course of 12 months:

1. Selection of supply chain(s) of focus (i.e. energy wood, construction, and furniture, among other uses), defining the methodology(ies) to be used and planning of data collection;
2. Modelling supply chain dynamics and relationships between actors along the supply chain;
3. Analysis and preparation of country report and recommendations;
4. Contribution to global knowledge and methodological development;
5. Dissemination of the findings at multiple scales

RESULTS

The final report has been completed. The activity held a workshop to present the report findings to key stakeholders and Government counterparts in 2018. More dissemination and client engagement have been deferred to a later stage to coincide with planned consultations during project preparation. Findings of this activity show that:

• The primarily pristine forest estate annually sequesters some 6.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent, and provides important local ecosystem functions such as flood management.
• BiH forest production is potentially competitive in European markets for raw logs (71.2% of export to EU market).
• The investment requirements for forest roads, harvesting, and subsequent replanting far exceed the current cash flow of the forest companies.
• Priority should be placed on extracting higher value from existing production (e.g., less to fuelwood and more to higher value-added supply chain options
• Non-wood products are especially important in improving rural livelihoods for women and other vulnerable segments of the population
• BiH is well positioned to take advantage of the value-added opportunities for medicinal and aromatic plant resources.
• Reforms to the business model for extractive forestry are needed, focusing on multiple avenues including primarily: (i) increased revenue capture and retention; (ii) improved access to foreign capital; and, (iii) reduced social overheads.

Investment Opportunities: Constraints to Investment and Potential Solutions

The Southern and East Africa Region Forest Investment Forum, held in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, from June 13-16, 2006, identified emerging opportunities for responsible private investment in the forest sector to drive economic development, reduce poverty and conserve forest resources. The Forum discussed constraints to such investment, specifically forest sector corruption and governance failures more broadly that manifest in a lack of transparency in forest resource use, ineffective land tenure policies, and a poor investment environment.

Moreover, the Forum considered promising innovative and progressive solutions to overcome these obstacles to harnessing forests' development potential. Such solutions include:

•  land tenure reform in support of community forest ownership,
• measures to increase transparency in forest resource allocation,
• market mechanisms to promote good governance such as forest certification and proof of legality,
• and the potential of payments for environmental services to deliver additional investment returns.

Corporate-community forest partnerships and small–medium scale forest based enterprises were given special consideration at the Forum as means to reduce poverty through the creation of jobs as well as markets for timber from community-owned or managed wood lots. Forum participants visited corporate-community forest operations to learn first hand how they function.

The Investment Forum provided the opportunity for representatives of governments, local communities, forest industry, conservation agencies, financial institutions and private investors to come together to not only discuss how to make such solutions work, but also to agree on specific follow up action and possibly make investment deals.

Countries from the region that were represented at the Forum included Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Forum was organized by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Program on Forests (PROFOR) in partnership with South Africa's Ministry of Water Affairs and Forests (DWAF), Forestry South Africa, the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), and WWF.

Two earlier Forums in this series were hosted by the World Bank, IFC, PROFOR and other partners in Washington DC in October 2003 and in Nairobi, Kenya, in April, 2005. A third International Investment Forum was hosted by ITTO, Forest Trends and CONAFOR in Cancun, Mexico, May of 2006.

The Southern and East Africa Region Forest Investment Forum, held in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, from June 13-16, 2006, identified emerging opportunities for responsible private investment in the forest sector to drive economic development, reduce poverty and conserve forest resources. The Forum discussed constraints to such investment, specifically forest sector corruption and governance failures more broadly that manifest in a lack of transparency in forest resource use, ineffective land tenure policies, and a poor investment environment.

Moreover, the Forum considered promising innovative and progressive solutions to overcome these obstacles to harnessing forests' development potential. Such solutions include:

•  land tenure reform in support of community forest ownership,
• measures to increase transparency in forest resource allocation,
• market mechanisms to promote good governance such as forest certification and proof of legality,
• and the potential of payments for environmental services to deliver additional investment returns.

Corporate-community forest partnerships and small–medium scale forest based enterprises were given special consideration at the Forum as means to reduce poverty through the creation of jobs as well as markets for timber from community-owned or managed wood lots. Forum participants visited corporate-community forest operations to learn first hand how they function.

The Investment Forum provided the opportunity for representatives of governments, local communities, forest industry, conservation agencies, financial institutions and private investors to come together to not only discuss how to make such solutions work, but also to agree on specific follow up action and possibly make investment deals.

Countries from the region that were represented at the Forum included Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Forum was organized by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Program on Forests (PROFOR) in partnership with South Africa's Ministry of Water Affairs and Forests (DWAF), Forestry South Africa, the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), and WWF.

Two earlier Forums in this series were hosted by the World Bank, IFC, PROFOR and other partners in Washington DC in October 2003 and in Nairobi, Kenya, in April, 2005. A third International Investment Forum was hosted by ITTO, Forest Trends and CONAFOR in Cancun, Mexico, May of 2006.

Investment Opportunities: Constraints to Investment and Potential Solutions

The Southern and East Africa Region Forest Investment Forum, held in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, from June 13-16, 2006, identified emerging opportunities for responsible private investment in the forest sector to drive economic development, reduce poverty and conserve forest resources. The Forum discussed constraints to such investment, specifically forest sector corruption and governance failures more broadly that manifest in a lack of transparency in forest resource use, ineffective land tenure policies, and a poor investment environment.

Moreover, the Forum considered promising innovative and progressive solutions to overcome these obstacles to harnessing forests' development potential. Such solutions include:

•  land tenure reform in support of community forest ownership,
• measures to increase transparency in forest resource allocation,
• market mechanisms to promote good governance such as forest certification and proof of legality,
• and the potential of payments for environmental services to deliver additional investment returns.

Corporate-community forest partnerships and small–medium scale forest based enterprises were given special consideration at the Forum as means to reduce poverty through the creation of jobs as well as markets for timber from community-owned or managed wood lots. Forum participants visited corporate-community forest operations to learn first hand how they function.

The Investment Forum provided the opportunity for representatives of governments, local communities, forest industry, conservation agencies, financial institutions and private investors to come together to not only discuss how to make such solutions work, but also to agree on specific follow up action and possibly make investment deals.

Countries from the region that were represented at the Forum included Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Forum was organized by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Program on Forests (PROFOR) in partnership with South Africa's Ministry of Water Affairs and Forests (DWAF), Forestry South Africa, the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), and WWF.

Two earlier Forums in this series were hosted by the World Bank, IFC, PROFOR and other partners in Washington DC in October 2003 and in Nairobi, Kenya, in April, 2005. A third International Investment Forum was hosted by ITTO, Forest Trends and CONAFOR in Cancun, Mexico, May of 2006.

The Southern and East Africa Region Forest Investment Forum, held in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, from June 13-16, 2006, identified emerging opportunities for responsible private investment in the forest sector to drive economic development, reduce poverty and conserve forest resources. The Forum discussed constraints to such investment, specifically forest sector corruption and governance failures more broadly that manifest in a lack of transparency in forest resource use, ineffective land tenure policies, and a poor investment environment.

Moreover, the Forum considered promising innovative and progressive solutions to overcome these obstacles to harnessing forests' development potential. Such solutions include:

•  land tenure reform in support of community forest ownership,
• measures to increase transparency in forest resource allocation,
• market mechanisms to promote good governance such as forest certification and proof of legality,
• and the potential of payments for environmental services to deliver additional investment returns.

Corporate-community forest partnerships and small–medium scale forest based enterprises were given special consideration at the Forum as means to reduce poverty through the creation of jobs as well as markets for timber from community-owned or managed wood lots. Forum participants visited corporate-community forest operations to learn first hand how they function.

The Investment Forum provided the opportunity for representatives of governments, local communities, forest industry, conservation agencies, financial institutions and private investors to come together to not only discuss how to make such solutions work, but also to agree on specific follow up action and possibly make investment deals.

Countries from the region that were represented at the Forum included Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. The Forum was organized by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Program on Forests (PROFOR) in partnership with South Africa's Ministry of Water Affairs and Forests (DWAF), Forestry South Africa, the International Tropical Timber Organization (ITTO), and WWF.

Two earlier Forums in this series were hosted by the World Bank, IFC, PROFOR and other partners in Washington DC in October 2003 and in Nairobi, Kenya, in April, 2005. A third International Investment Forum was hosted by ITTO, Forest Trends and CONAFOR in Cancun, Mexico, May of 2006.

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: population increases (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); local and regional development; and the rise in global demand for commodities.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty, while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region's natural capital.

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). The overall study was led by the World Bank Africa Region. A team from the International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis (IASA) led a modeling exercise, based on the GLOBIOM model but tailored to the Congo region, to investigate drivers of deforestation by 2030 and assess the impacts of various "policy shocks" (such as: increased international demand for biofuel; improved transportation infrastructure; improved agricultural technologies; etc). The approach also relied heavily on the inputs from multi-stakeholder regional workshops and in-depth sectoral reports (available on this page).

MAIN FINDINGS

• ƒDeforestation rates are likely to increase in the future to sustain development and poverty reduction.
• ƒƒIncreasing agricultural productivity is not sufficient to limit pressure on forests.
• ƒƒWood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoal production will continue to grow for the next few decades and could create a massive threat to forests in densely populated areas.
• ƒƒThe development of much-needed transportation infrastructure could lead to major deforestation, mainly by changing economic dynamics in newly accessible rural areas.
• ƒƒThe pressure from formal logging is limited, but informal chainsaw logging is expected to progressively degrade forests.
• ƒƒMining—a largely untapped source of income and growth—could also lead to significant impacts when the sector develops.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
The study highlights options to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, green growth. Emerging environmental finance mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), may provide additional resources to help countries protect their forests. But there are already a number of “no-regrets” actions that countries can take to grow along a sustainable development path:

• Participatory land use planning could help clarify tradeoffs among different sectors, encourage the development of growth poles and corridors, and direct destructive activities away from forests of great ecological value.
• ƒƒUnlocking the potential of the Congo Basin for agriculture will not necessarily take a toll on forests: the Congo Basin could almost double its cultivated area without converting any forested areas. Policy makers should seek to target agricultural activities primarily towards degraded and nonforested land.
• ƒƒIn the energy sector, putting the woodfuel supply chain on a more sustainable and formal basis should stand as a priority. More attention should be paid to responding to growing urban needs for both food and energy through intensified multi-use systems (agroforestry).
• ƒƒBetter planning at the regional and national levels could help contain the adverse effects of transportation development, through a multi-modal and more spatially efficient network.
• ƒƒExpanding sustainable forest management principles to the booming and unregulated informal logging sector would help preserve forest biomass and carbon stocks.
• ƒƒSetting “high standard” goals for environmental management of the mining sector could help mitigate adverse effects as the sector develops in the Congo Basin.

See also: Main recommendations by sector (English) - Recommandations principales par secteur (français)

RESULTS
The results from the modeling exercise were shared over the years: at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties 15 in Copehagen, at the World Bank in January 2010 and February 2013( "SDN week" ) and at multiple regional conferences and workshops (Kinshasa, Douala, Brazzaville 2009-2012; final regional conference in Kinshasa, May 2013 - see conference presentations here).

The findings have helped Congo Basin countries better understand the diversity of factors of deforestation --beyond logging -- and the impact of indirect external factors such as global commodity demand.

The knowledge generated from this activity is critically important as Congo Basin countries prepare their REDD+ and broader development strategies. If countries are able to minimize forest loss as their economies develop, they could "leapfrog" the steep drop in forest cover that has historically accompanied development in many countries, and make an important global contribution to climate change mitigation.

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: population increases (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); local and regional development; and the rise in global demand for commodities.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty, while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region's natural capital.

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). The overall study was led by the World Bank Africa Region. A team from the International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis (IASA) led a modeling exercise, based on the GLOBIOM model but tailored to the Congo region, to investigate drivers of deforestation by 2030 and assess the impacts of various "policy shocks" (such as: increased international demand for biofuel; improved transportation infrastructure; improved agricultural technologies; etc). The approach also relied heavily on the inputs from multi-stakeholder regional workshops and in-depth sectoral reports (available on this page).

MAIN FINDINGS

• ƒDeforestation rates are likely to increase in the future to sustain development and poverty reduction.
• ƒƒIncreasing agricultural productivity is not sufficient to limit pressure on forests.
• ƒƒWood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoal production will continue to grow for the next few decades and could create a massive threat to forests in densely populated areas.
• ƒƒThe development of much-needed transportation infrastructure could lead to major deforestation, mainly by changing economic dynamics in newly accessible rural areas.
• ƒƒThe pressure from formal logging is limited, but informal chainsaw logging is expected to progressively degrade forests.
• ƒƒMining—a largely untapped source of income and growth—could also lead to significant impacts when the sector develops.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
The study highlights options to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, green growth. Emerging environmental finance mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), may provide additional resources to help countries protect their forests. But there are already a number of “no-regrets” actions that countries can take to grow along a sustainable development path:

• Participatory land use planning could help clarify tradeoffs among different sectors, encourage the development of growth poles and corridors, and direct destructive activities away from forests of great ecological value.
• ƒƒUnlocking the potential of the Congo Basin for agriculture will not necessarily take a toll on forests: the Congo Basin could almost double its cultivated area without converting any forested areas. Policy makers should seek to target agricultural activities primarily towards degraded and nonforested land.
• ƒƒIn the energy sector, putting the woodfuel supply chain on a more sustainable and formal basis should stand as a priority. More attention should be paid to responding to growing urban needs for both food and energy through intensified multi-use systems (agroforestry).
• ƒƒBetter planning at the regional and national levels could help contain the adverse effects of transportation development, through a multi-modal and more spatially efficient network.
• ƒƒExpanding sustainable forest management principles to the booming and unregulated informal logging sector would help preserve forest biomass and carbon stocks.
• ƒƒSetting “high standard” goals for environmental management of the mining sector could help mitigate adverse effects as the sector develops in the Congo Basin.

See also: Main recommendations by sector (English) - Recommandations principales par secteur (français)

RESULTS
The results from the modeling exercise were shared over the years: at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties 15 in Copehagen, at the World Bank in January 2010 and February 2013( "SDN week" ) and at multiple regional conferences and workshops (Kinshasa, Douala, Brazzaville 2009-2012; final regional conference in Kinshasa, May 2013 - see conference presentations here).

The findings have helped Congo Basin countries better understand the diversity of factors of deforestation --beyond logging -- and the impact of indirect external factors such as global commodity demand.

The knowledge generated from this activity is critically important as Congo Basin countries prepare their REDD+ and broader development strategies. If countries are able to minimize forest loss as their economies develop, they could "leapfrog" the steep drop in forest cover that has historically accompanied development in many countries, and make an important global contribution to climate change mitigation.

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: population increases (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); local and regional development; and the rise in global demand for commodities.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty, while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region's natural capital.

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). The overall study was led by the World Bank Africa Region. A team from the International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis (IASA) led a modeling exercise, based on the GLOBIOM model but tailored to the Congo region, to investigate drivers of deforestation by 2030 and assess the impacts of various "policy shocks" (such as: increased international demand for biofuel; improved transportation infrastructure; improved agricultural technologies; etc). The approach also relied heavily on the inputs from multi-stakeholder regional workshops and in-depth sectoral reports (available on this page).

MAIN FINDINGS

• ƒDeforestation rates are likely to increase in the future to sustain development and poverty reduction.
• ƒƒIncreasing agricultural productivity is not sufficient to limit pressure on forests.
• ƒƒWood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoal production will continue to grow for the next few decades and could create a massive threat to forests in densely populated areas.
• ƒƒThe development of much-needed transportation infrastructure could lead to major deforestation, mainly by changing economic dynamics in newly accessible rural areas.
• ƒƒThe pressure from formal logging is limited, but informal chainsaw logging is expected to progressively degrade forests.
• ƒƒMining—a largely untapped source of income and growth—could also lead to significant impacts when the sector develops.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
The study highlights options to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, green growth. Emerging environmental finance mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), may provide additional resources to help countries protect their forests. But there are already a number of “no-regrets” actions that countries can take to grow along a sustainable development path:

• Participatory land use planning could help clarify tradeoffs among different sectors, encourage the development of growth poles and corridors, and direct destructive activities away from forests of great ecological value.
• ƒƒUnlocking the potential of the Congo Basin for agriculture will not necessarily take a toll on forests: the Congo Basin could almost double its cultivated area without converting any forested areas. Policy makers should seek to target agricultural activities primarily towards degraded and nonforested land.
• ƒƒIn the energy sector, putting the woodfuel supply chain on a more sustainable and formal basis should stand as a priority. More attention should be paid to responding to growing urban needs for both food and energy through intensified multi-use systems (agroforestry).
• ƒƒBetter planning at the regional and national levels could help contain the adverse effects of transportation development, through a multi-modal and more spatially efficient network.
• ƒƒExpanding sustainable forest management principles to the booming and unregulated informal logging sector would help preserve forest biomass and carbon stocks.
• ƒƒSetting “high standard” goals for environmental management of the mining sector could help mitigate adverse effects as the sector develops in the Congo Basin.

See also: Main recommendations by sector (English) - Recommandations principales par secteur (français)

RESULTS
The results from the modeling exercise were shared over the years: at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties 15 in Copehagen, at the World Bank in January 2010 and February 2013( "SDN week" ) and at multiple regional conferences and workshops (Kinshasa, Douala, Brazzaville 2009-2012; final regional conference in Kinshasa, May 2013 - see conference presentations here).

The findings have helped Congo Basin countries better understand the diversity of factors of deforestation --beyond logging -- and the impact of indirect external factors such as global commodity demand.

The knowledge generated from this activity is critically important as Congo Basin countries prepare their REDD+ and broader development strategies. If countries are able to minimize forest loss as their economies develop, they could "leapfrog" the steep drop in forest cover that has historically accompanied development in many countries, and make an important global contribution to climate change mitigation.

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: population increases (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); local and regional development; and the rise in global demand for commodities.

The countries of the Congo Basin face the dual challenge of developing local economies and reducing poverty, while limiting the negative impact of growth on the region's natural capital.

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). The overall study was led by the World Bank Africa Region. A team from the International Institute for Applies Systems Analysis (IASA) led a modeling exercise, based on the GLOBIOM model but tailored to the Congo region, to investigate drivers of deforestation by 2030 and assess the impacts of various "policy shocks" (such as: increased international demand for biofuel; improved transportation infrastructure; improved agricultural technologies; etc). The approach also relied heavily on the inputs from multi-stakeholder regional workshops and in-depth sectoral reports (available on this page).

MAIN FINDINGS

• ƒDeforestation rates are likely to increase in the future to sustain development and poverty reduction.
• ƒƒIncreasing agricultural productivity is not sufficient to limit pressure on forests.
• ƒƒWood extraction for domestic fuelwood or charcoal production will continue to grow for the next few decades and could create a massive threat to forests in densely populated areas.
• ƒƒThe development of much-needed transportation infrastructure could lead to major deforestation, mainly by changing economic dynamics in newly accessible rural areas.
• ƒƒThe pressure from formal logging is limited, but informal chainsaw logging is expected to progressively degrade forests.
• ƒƒMining—a largely untapped source of income and growth—could also lead to significant impacts when the sector develops.

MAIN RECOMMENDATIONS
The study highlights options to limit deforestation while pursuing inclusive, green growth. Emerging environmental finance mechanisms, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), may provide additional resources to help countries protect their forests. But there are already a number of “no-regrets” actions that countries can take to grow along a sustainable development path:

• Participatory land use planning could help clarify tradeoffs among different sectors, encourage the development of growth poles and corridors, and direct destructive activities away from forests of great ecological value.
• ƒƒUnlocking the potential of the Congo Basin for agriculture will not necessarily take a toll on forests: the Congo Basin could almost double its cultivated area without converting any forested areas. Policy makers should seek to target agricultural activities primarily towards degraded and nonforested land.
• ƒƒIn the energy sector, putting the woodfuel supply chain on a more sustainable and formal basis should stand as a priority. More attention should be paid to responding to growing urban needs for both food and energy through intensified multi-use systems (agroforestry).
• ƒƒBetter planning at the regional and national levels could help contain the adverse effects of transportation development, through a multi-modal and more spatially efficient network.
• ƒƒExpanding sustainable forest management principles to the booming and unregulated informal logging sector would help preserve forest biomass and carbon stocks.
• ƒƒSetting “high standard” goals for environmental management of the mining sector could help mitigate adverse effects as the sector develops in the Congo Basin.

See also: Main recommendations by sector (English) - Recommandations principales par secteur (français)

RESULTS
The results from the modeling exercise were shared over the years: at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties 15 in Copehagen, at the World Bank in January 2010 and February 2013( "SDN week" ) and at multiple regional conferences and workshops (Kinshasa, Douala, Brazzaville 2009-2012; final regional conference in Kinshasa, May 2013 - see conference presentations here).

The findings have helped Congo Basin countries better understand the diversity of factors of deforestation --beyond logging -- and the impact of indirect external factors such as global commodity demand.

The knowledge generated from this activity is critically important as Congo Basin countries prepare their REDD+ and broader development strategies. If countries are able to minimize forest loss as their economies develop, they could "leapfrog" the steep drop in forest cover that has historically accompanied development in many countries, and make an important global contribution to climate change mitigation.