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This paper reviews the role of global commodities in the expansion of agricultural land use in three dimensions. First, the paper aims to understand the major drivers in the demand for agricultural commodities in the recent past. Second, it projects each of these drivers forward to provide demand estimates to 2050. Finally, it estimates the likely contribution of intensification and area expansion to supplying the demand for beef, soybeans, and palm oil to 2050. The policy brief focuses on soybeans and palm oil, where it shows that the five major drivers of tropical land use in the past 25 years have entered a new phase that will sharply slow demand for these commodities. The brief also reviews the outlook for beef which has expanded only modestly in recent years and notes considerable uncertainty with respect to future global trade in beef.