CHALLENGE
There is growing concern that Brazilian agriculture and forestry sectors are increasingly vulnerable to climate variability and change (eg. a decline in productivity of subsistence crops in northeastern Brazil; increased risk of fire and Amazonian forest dieback). To meet development, food security, climate adaptation and mitigation, and trade goals over the next several decades, Brazil will need to significantly increase per area productivity of food and pasture systems in central and southern Brazil while simultaneously reducing deforestation, rehabilitating millions of hectares of degraded land for cropping and forest plantations in the Amazon, the cerrado, the Atlantic forest, and the Pampas.

However, because of previous climate modeling and data limitations, there was still significant uncertainty associated with the projections for Amazonian rainfall (timing, seasonality) as well as the magnitude and locations of climate impacts in Brazil over the next 50 years. Improved climate change impact assessments were urgently needed to guide policy makers on priorities, geographical targeting (hot spots), and phasing of investments for adataptation and mitigation to climate change.

APPROACH
This activity implemented by the World Bank in partnership with leading Brazilian agencies and supported by PROFOR focused on establishing a robust and integrated decision and policy support framework that could empower Brazil’s policy makers and the agricultural sector to undertake the adaptation necessary to cope with projected climate change.

Its objectives were:

• 1.To refine the available climate change projections for Brazil via the coupling of global, regional, and local scale modeling currently being tested by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) in Brazil and the regional climate program for South America (CREAS).
• 2. To integrate the INPE and CREAS suite of tested global (300 km horizontal resolution) and regional models (50 km horizontal resolution) with the state of the art Brazilian developments in Regional Atmospheric Model (BRAMS) that incorporates aerosol and land cover/deforestation/burning feedbacks for much improved local weather and climate (especially rainfall) projections.
• 3. To make the Brazilian Agro-Eco Zoning Model that is currently used by the Central Bank of Brazil for rural credit programs "climate-smart" by integrating the high resolution climate projection outputs from 1 and 2.
• 4. To make the existing Brazilian Land Use Model (BLUM) climate-sensitive by coupling it with the outputs described above to assess: (a) Climate change induced changes in supply and demand of agricultural commodities at a national level, (b) Changes on the distribution of land use and production (agriculture, forestry, pasture) in Brazil for given supply and demand scenarios, and (c) Economic effects on agricultural and forestry production and profitability.

RESULTS
Projections for land use and forest land cover change, and an assessment of the distribution of land use and production were undertaken. Specifically, previous climate change projections were refined using a global, regional and local scale modeling; Regional Climate Change Scenarios for South America (CREAS) were used for regional and sectoral impact assessments; the Agro Climatic Risk and Vulnerability Zoning Model developed by EMBRAPA and UNICAMP was refined; soils were classified and cropping areas that are less vulnerable to climate change impacts were identified based on temperature effects through 2020 and 2030. A final report, in English and Portuguese, is forthcoming.

FINDINGS
The study showed that while for some crops (soybean and cotton) the projected negative climate impacts to 2020 are likely to be more moderate than previously projected, for other crops (beans and corn), however, the impacts could be significantly more severe than projected in previous studies. All the climate change scenarios simulated in this study resulted in a reduction of ‘low risk’ cropland area in 2020 and 2030.

More specifically, the findings suggested that the South Region of Brazil, currently an agricultural powerhouse, could potentially lose up to 5 million hectares (ha) of its highly suitable agricultural land due to climate change, while Brazil as a whole could have around 11 million ha less of highly suitable agricultural land by 2030. The findings of this study are being incorporated by EMBRAPA into the EMBRAPA/UNICAMP Agroecozone Model to improve the climate projections that underpin the national rural credit and insurance programs in Brazil.

Read the report in Portuguese.

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CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

CHALLENGE
More than 60 percent of Syria’s poor people live in rural areas and more than half of these depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The country’s forests, which include 23 natural protected areas rich in biodiversity, also represent a significant source of livelihoods for rural populations.  But these protected areas are feeling the strains of overuse and degradation from human activity such as overgrazing, overexploitation of wood, and expansion of agriculture.

In this context of natural resource dependence, it is conceivable that the post-2006 increase in the prices of agro-food products has had a significant direct impact (through their influence on farming costs and revenues) and indirect impact (by affecting other potential sources of revenues such as tourism, and sales of handicrafts to tourists) on rural livelihoods.

But as yet, the impact of increased agro-food and fuel prices on farmers and on forest use is not clear. To the extent that a change in agricultural activities compete with forests, pressure on forests may have risen (eg. increased overgrazing).

APPROACH
In order to guide the World Bank and development partners' support to Syria’s natural resource management, PROFOR supported a knowledge activity examining the implications of recent changes in international and local agro-food and fuel prices on farmers’ welfare (and rural livelihoods more broadly) and on their use of forests. In response to requests form the Government of Syria, the analysis also addressed critical challenges facing the development of the rural sector in a changing climate.

RESULTS
This activity was closed in December 2011. 

• Robert Wilby of Loughborough University has produced a report with climate risk information by down-scaling historical climate data and projected climate scenarios for Syria at a detailed spatial scale for year 2030, 2050 and 2100.
• IFPRI was hired to produce an economy-wide impact assessment of climate change on the rural sector by integrating biophysical data in a general equilibrium model. A seminar was held with the State Planning Commission and NAPC on the economic modeling part of the CC analysis in September, 2010.  The discussion paper "Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria and Options for Adaptation" is available here.
• A World Bank Policy Note on Climate Change in Syria was submitted in October, 2010 to the State Planning Commission as input for the next 5-year plan.
• However, since February 2011, the political crisis in Syria has prevented World Bank staff and consultants from traveling to Syria. Therefore the qualitative field work, training and consultations planned under this activity were not undertaken. 
      

CHALLENGE

The potential for wood production in Mozambique from planted forests has gained attention in recent years. Interest in private wood production increased in the mid-2000’s after the Government of Mozambique (GoMZ) began promoting planted forests, including smallholder plantations. The National Reforestation Strategy (Plano de Acção para o Reflorestamento, 2009) and the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA) 2010-19 (2010, draft)  by the Ministry of Agriculture (Ministério da Agricultura, MINAG) estimated that 7 million hectares of land would be available in central and northern regions. The strategy calls for establishing both community forests and commercial plantations.

Despite these ambitious goals and significant interest from commercial and philanthropic investors, actual investments have been small and sporadic. In total it has been estimated that some 574,000 ha have been allocated for plantation companies, only part of which have been actually planted. Additionally, part of the areas allocated for plantations will need to be used for food production, and community plantation activities. The low level of actual investment demonstrates that despite a generally stable political environment, as well as good growing conditions and good connections to fast growing Asian markets, Mozambique is affected by other factors that have prevented investments.

APPROACH

This PROFOR activity informed the Government of Mozambique about how to develop the planted forests sector and strengthen its development impact. It supported the implementation of MINAG/DNTF strategies and addressed the investment climate challenges at all key dimensions: policy, legal, institutional, infrastructural. The investments and investors covered ranged from smallholders producing wood for local use to large commercial investors. Particular focus was on engaging smallholders in wood production as well as on business partnerships. The focus of the project was national, with fieldwork – done primarily in the Zambezia and Manica provinces.

RESULTS

This study concluded that Mozambique has the potential to develop a profitable and sustainable plantation-based industry, provided action is taken on the key issues identified. Above all, the issues that need to be resolved are land access concerns and also to increase growth and yield and reduce the relatively high operational  costs. Very similar issues are holding back investment in plantation forestry in other countries too. It is considered that this study has relevance well beyond Mozambique, as its approach could be replicated in other countries looking to stimulate the development of a sustainable plantation forest sector.

These results have been presented in small-scale workshops to key partners, and informed the policy dialogue for the “Floresta em Pe” reform agenda on forestry, which will set the stage for investment activities under two World Bank projects: Sustainable Landscapes and the Forest Investment Program (FIP).

CHALLENGE

To control and reduce deforestation in the Amazon, the Brazilian government created the National REDD+ Strategy (NRS), which has provided a framework to compensate entities protecting the Amazon along a jurisdictional scale (states). In 2015, to support the coordination and implementation of the NRS, the Brazilian Government established the National Commission for Reducing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, Conservation of Forest Carbon Stocks, Sustainable Management of Forests and Increase in Carbon Stocks Forestry - REDD + (CONAREDD). Representing federal, state and municipal governments as well as local and civil society organizations, CONAREDD has worked to advance dialogue and cooperation amongst the various stakeholders and members. However, certain representatives of society, including indigenous people, smallholders, and traditional communities are still not fully included in the REDD+ debates. The process of how and to whom the benefits of Brazil’s NRS can be offered and allocated amongst the stakeholders of the Amazon forest states remains largely undetermined and un-informed.

Therefore, there is the need for a healthy debate about the alternatives for benefit-sharing mechanisms for REDD+ that reflects the interests of different social groups in the Amazon. PROFOR’s program seeks to engage with leaders of the Amazon and representatives of the states and federal governments to debate and devise options on benefit sharing that could support the NRS and the REDD+ initiatives of regional states.

APPROACH

PROFOR’s program will work closely with identified local organizations such as the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), a Brazilian NGO that will be leading many of the activities, to conduct the following:   

• Report on the current benefit-sharing mechanisms being used or proposed in Brazil;
• Apply PROFOR’s Options Assessment Framework with stakeholders during a series of workshops to obtain recommendation on the benefit-sharing mechanism to be applied to Brazil’s context;
• Develop an interim report based on stakeholder´s opinions derived from the Framework results;
• Conduct a final workshop to discuss the benefit-sharing mechanisms identified;
• Draw a best practice guide to implement the mechanisms identified during the workshops.

RESULTS: 

• The workshops participants  claimed a higher participation of the private sector in the REDD+ process,  as a way to reach more robust mechanisms, not only as direct beneficiaries of carbon sequestration but as protagonists in the management of financial mechanisms that can enable a cost-effective forest-based economy. The argument is that the governmental machine has many bureaucracy, lack of agility and lack of transparence that commits the implementation of REDD+.   
• Both national and subnational governments need to establish a closer dialogue with local actors, despite the dimensions, access difficulties and multiculturalism characteristic of the Amazon. This dialogue is key to improve their understanding of REDD+ and increase their participation in the whole process.  
• Communities, although they are the protagonists of the process, have a marginal involvement so far. A heavy and intense process of leadership strengthening, and capacity building is one of the key measures that needs to be improved. 
• The role of NGOs is fundamental in REDD+ initiatives. However, it is not their role to fulfill the obligations of the governments. Besides, NGOs need more resources to increase their capillarity and support more communities.  
• The public sector should incorporate the variables of private management in the management of funds. Funds should be managed by the private sector, NGOs or both together.  

• The states developed their REDD+ strategies and policies before the federal government. Therefore, a harmonized approach  between Federal and State polices will be necessary. Such approach include mutual recognition, equivalency, and reference standards 
• The consultations that are made to communities may not be valid since they can reflect better on their consent.     

• In a transition to incentive policies for the conservation of forests, the command and control approaches continue to be essential in the routines of environmental agencies. 
• Setting up a quality center for intelligence gathering and spatial monitoring is a critical, yet resource intensive task, requiring appropriate equipment and specialized human resources. Only through robust investments can states be able to monitor and deter illicit actions in a timely manner. 
• The technology does not replace the human capacity to read the images, especially in natural features that are confused with deforestation and degradation. There is a lack of human resources able to do this job, as well as to exercise command and control actions, once the situations in which they should intervene have been detected. 
• There is a major bottleneck in measures to detect and measure environmental degradation in relation to deforestation that needs to be observed.