CHALLENGE

Due to climate change, the dry-season length has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, resulting in a prolonged fire season. Major droughts in 2005 and 2010 significantly damaged the southern portion of the Amazon forest in Brazil and elevated fire-induced tree mortality in as much as 12% of the southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest “dieback” in the near-term. In addition, a recent study of human impacts on the integrity of the Amazon forest reported that a combination of selective logging and wildfires turns primary forests into a thick scrub full of smaller trees and vines, which not only stores 40% less carbon than undisturbed forests, but is also more susceptible to fires from adjacent farms and pasturelands than pristine forest. Forests are also under threat from the conversion to agriculture, particularly at the Cerrado margin, which has seen the largest expansion of medium and large farms, often linked to dynamic external markets.

APPROACH

The development objective of this proposal is to provide guidance to key local and national stakeholders on the design of policies and measures with the aim of maintaining the resilience of the southern Amazon forest in the face of climate change, increasing forest degradation, fire risks and associated greenhouse gas emissions, and increased global demand for agricultural commodities.

In the short-term, this activity will improve stakeholders involved in policy-making and implementation understanding of the dynamics between forests, agriculture and climate change, and resulting forest degradation and fire risks in a fragile frontier by key. In the medium term, it is expected to feed into the policy cycle by (i) establishing a sound set of potential impacts under different scenarios; and (ii) providing the basis for informed dialogue around increasing the resilience impact of policies and measures in the land use sector under the National Climate Change Policy.

The activity is composed of three tasks:

• Modeling of climate change, fire, forest degradation, and land use change dynamics in southern Amazonia. This will build on previous modeling work conducted by the World Bank in Brazil under the Low Carbon Country Case Study (Gouvello et al. 2010), namely SimBrasil and DINAMICA. The output will consist of a report outlining potential forest resilience impacts under different scenarios. The work will focus on the near to mid-term (2020) and complement the PROFOR supported study "Turn Down the Heat" that is focusing on medium- to long-term impacts (2030–2050).
• Policy options for managing the agricultural frontier. The output will include a report with recommendations resulting from the dialogue.
• Dissemination and knowledge exchange.

RESULTS

The simulations of future fire regimes indicate that the Southern Amazon is on the verge of a drastic tipping point from which the extent of areas burned in drought years may even double. This happens consistently in the four scenarios modeled after 2030, with and without deforestation. In other words, a temperature rise of just ≈1° relative to the current average (2010-2015) could trigger a series of large forest fires during the most severe droughts in the region. In those years, areas burned in the Southern Amazon could extend to over 3.6 million hectares, an increase of about 110% relative to the extent of the 2007 fires. In general, there is an increase in burned forest area from 17% to 41% after 2030 compared to 2002-2010. Although the results of the three models and four scenarios analyzed diverge from each other slightly, the trend is the same.

While the results of the simulations are inconclusive for years of normal rainfall, the advance of deforestation (at current rates) implies that an additional 7-16% of land will be burned between 2011-50 relative to scenarios with climate change alone. Although forest fragmentation plays an important role in facilitating fire spread, the results show that drought is the key determinant of the fire regime. This points to a virtually catastrophic effect of droughts powered by global warming, even in a scenario of robust climate change mitigation and a sharp reduction in deforestation rates.

In terms of geographic pattern, the southern Amazon is likely to be very heavily impacted, with some variation between the southeast and southwest depending on the different scenarios. In addition, high-intensity fires during droughts will be more extensive, implying higher mortality and consequent loss of forest biomass. From being a potential carbon sink, the Amazon forest will become a net source of carbon dioxide emissions, feeding back into global warming.

These dire warnings are crucial because they relate to an ecosystem of extremely high local, regional and global consequence. At the local and regional levels, fires in the Amazon are destroying valuable ecosystem services that communities depend on. The vast majority of agricultural production in Latin America depends on rain, meaning that disruptions to these systems will have profound negative impacts on livelihoods, jobs, health and nutrition, and wellbeing more generally. At the global level, it is very alarming that the Amazon forest may soon become a net emitter of carbon dioxide, rather than a potential carbon sink, contributing to climate change and further reducing the resilience of communities and ecosystems.

The final report identifies very feasible policy actions that can mitigate these negative impacts, including:

• Investing in fire prevention and firefighting capacity;
• Incentivizing alternative agricultual practices that are not based on fire; and
• Better land use planning to align agricultural producers and aggregators.

Implementing such policies is critical to conserving forests and biodiversity, ensuring the availability of ecosystem services and keeping people out of poverty, and ultimately to achieving global targets like the World Bank twin goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement.

CHALLENGE

Due to climate change, the dry-season length has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, resulting in a prolonged fire season. Major droughts in 2005 and 2010 significantly damaged the southern portion of the Amazon forest in Brazil and elevated fire-induced tree mortality in as much as 12% of the southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest “dieback” in the near-term. In addition, a recent study of human impacts on the integrity of the Amazon forest reported that a combination of selective logging and wildfires turns primary forests into a thick scrub full of smaller trees and vines, which not only stores 40% less carbon than undisturbed forests, but is also more susceptible to fires from adjacent farms and pasturelands than pristine forest. Forests are also under threat from the conversion to agriculture, particularly at the Cerrado margin, which has seen the largest expansion of medium and large farms, often linked to dynamic external markets.

APPROACH

The development objective of this proposal is to provide guidance to key local and national stakeholders on the design of policies and measures with the aim of maintaining the resilience of the southern Amazon forest in the face of climate change, increasing forest degradation, fire risks and associated greenhouse gas emissions, and increased global demand for agricultural commodities.

In the short-term, this activity will improve stakeholders involved in policy-making and implementation understanding of the dynamics between forests, agriculture and climate change, and resulting forest degradation and fire risks in a fragile frontier by key. In the medium term, it is expected to feed into the policy cycle by (i) establishing a sound set of potential impacts under different scenarios; and (ii) providing the basis for informed dialogue around increasing the resilience impact of policies and measures in the land use sector under the National Climate Change Policy.

The activity is composed of three tasks:

• Modeling of climate change, fire, forest degradation, and land use change dynamics in southern Amazonia. This will build on previous modeling work conducted by the World Bank in Brazil under the Low Carbon Country Case Study (Gouvello et al. 2010), namely SimBrasil and DINAMICA. The output will consist of a report outlining potential forest resilience impacts under different scenarios. The work will focus on the near to mid-term (2020) and complement the PROFOR supported study "Turn Down the Heat" that is focusing on medium- to long-term impacts (2030–2050).
• Policy options for managing the agricultural frontier. The output will include a report with recommendations resulting from the dialogue.
• Dissemination and knowledge exchange.

RESULTS

The simulations of future fire regimes indicate that the Southern Amazon is on the verge of a drastic tipping point from which the extent of areas burned in drought years may even double. This happens consistently in the four scenarios modeled after 2030, with and without deforestation. In other words, a temperature rise of just ≈1° relative to the current average (2010-2015) could trigger a series of large forest fires during the most severe droughts in the region. In those years, areas burned in the Southern Amazon could extend to over 3.6 million hectares, an increase of about 110% relative to the extent of the 2007 fires. In general, there is an increase in burned forest area from 17% to 41% after 2030 compared to 2002-2010. Although the results of the three models and four scenarios analyzed diverge from each other slightly, the trend is the same.

While the results of the simulations are inconclusive for years of normal rainfall, the advance of deforestation (at current rates) implies that an additional 7-16% of land will be burned between 2011-50 relative to scenarios with climate change alone. Although forest fragmentation plays an important role in facilitating fire spread, the results show that drought is the key determinant of the fire regime. This points to a virtually catastrophic effect of droughts powered by global warming, even in a scenario of robust climate change mitigation and a sharp reduction in deforestation rates.

In terms of geographic pattern, the southern Amazon is likely to be very heavily impacted, with some variation between the southeast and southwest depending on the different scenarios. In addition, high-intensity fires during droughts will be more extensive, implying higher mortality and consequent loss of forest biomass. From being a potential carbon sink, the Amazon forest will become a net source of carbon dioxide emissions, feeding back into global warming.

These dire warnings are crucial because they relate to an ecosystem of extremely high local, regional and global consequence. At the local and regional levels, fires in the Amazon are destroying valuable ecosystem services that communities depend on. The vast majority of agricultural production in Latin America depends on rain, meaning that disruptions to these systems will have profound negative impacts on livelihoods, jobs, health and nutrition, and wellbeing more generally. At the global level, it is very alarming that the Amazon forest may soon become a net emitter of carbon dioxide, rather than a potential carbon sink, contributing to climate change and further reducing the resilience of communities and ecosystems.

The final report identifies very feasible policy actions that can mitigate these negative impacts, including:

• Investing in fire prevention and firefighting capacity;
• Incentivizing alternative agricultual practices that are not based on fire; and
• Better land use planning to align agricultural producers and aggregators.

Implementing such policies is critical to conserving forests and biodiversity, ensuring the availability of ecosystem services and keeping people out of poverty, and ultimately to achieving global targets like the World Bank twin goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement.

CHALLENGE

Due to climate change, the dry-season length has increased over southern Amazonia since 1979, resulting in a prolonged fire season. Major droughts in 2005 and 2010 significantly damaged the southern portion of the Amazon forest in Brazil and elevated fire-induced tree mortality in as much as 12% of the southeastern Amazon forests. These results suggest that feedbacks between fires and extreme climatic conditions could increase the likelihood of an Amazon forest “dieback” in the near-term. In addition, a recent study of human impacts on the integrity of the Amazon forest reported that a combination of selective logging and wildfires turns primary forests into a thick scrub full of smaller trees and vines, which not only stores 40% less carbon than undisturbed forests, but is also more susceptible to fires from adjacent farms and pasturelands than pristine forest. Forests are also under threat from the conversion to agriculture, particularly at the Cerrado margin, which has seen the largest expansion of medium and large farms, often linked to dynamic external markets.

APPROACH

The development objective of this proposal is to provide guidance to key local and national stakeholders on the design of policies and measures with the aim of maintaining the resilience of the southern Amazon forest in the face of climate change, increasing forest degradation, fire risks and associated greenhouse gas emissions, and increased global demand for agricultural commodities.

In the short-term, this activity will improve stakeholders involved in policy-making and implementation understanding of the dynamics between forests, agriculture and climate change, and resulting forest degradation and fire risks in a fragile frontier by key. In the medium term, it is expected to feed into the policy cycle by (i) establishing a sound set of potential impacts under different scenarios; and (ii) providing the basis for informed dialogue around increasing the resilience impact of policies and measures in the land use sector under the National Climate Change Policy.

The activity is composed of three tasks:

• Modeling of climate change, fire, forest degradation, and land use change dynamics in southern Amazonia. This will build on previous modeling work conducted by the World Bank in Brazil under the Low Carbon Country Case Study (Gouvello et al. 2010), namely SimBrasil and DINAMICA. The output will consist of a report outlining potential forest resilience impacts under different scenarios. The work will focus on the near to mid-term (2020) and complement the PROFOR supported study "Turn Down the Heat" that is focusing on medium- to long-term impacts (2030–2050).
• Policy options for managing the agricultural frontier. The output will include a report with recommendations resulting from the dialogue.
• Dissemination and knowledge exchange.

RESULTS

The simulations of future fire regimes indicate that the Southern Amazon is on the verge of a drastic tipping point from which the extent of areas burned in drought years may even double. This happens consistently in the four scenarios modeled after 2030, with and without deforestation. In other words, a temperature rise of just ≈1° relative to the current average (2010-2015) could trigger a series of large forest fires during the most severe droughts in the region. In those years, areas burned in the Southern Amazon could extend to over 3.6 million hectares, an increase of about 110% relative to the extent of the 2007 fires. In general, there is an increase in burned forest area from 17% to 41% after 2030 compared to 2002-2010. Although the results of the three models and four scenarios analyzed diverge from each other slightly, the trend is the same.

While the results of the simulations are inconclusive for years of normal rainfall, the advance of deforestation (at current rates) implies that an additional 7-16% of land will be burned between 2011-50 relative to scenarios with climate change alone. Although forest fragmentation plays an important role in facilitating fire spread, the results show that drought is the key determinant of the fire regime. This points to a virtually catastrophic effect of droughts powered by global warming, even in a scenario of robust climate change mitigation and a sharp reduction in deforestation rates.

In terms of geographic pattern, the southern Amazon is likely to be very heavily impacted, with some variation between the southeast and southwest depending on the different scenarios. In addition, high-intensity fires during droughts will be more extensive, implying higher mortality and consequent loss of forest biomass. From being a potential carbon sink, the Amazon forest will become a net source of carbon dioxide emissions, feeding back into global warming.

These dire warnings are crucial because they relate to an ecosystem of extremely high local, regional and global consequence. At the local and regional levels, fires in the Amazon are destroying valuable ecosystem services that communities depend on. The vast majority of agricultural production in Latin America depends on rain, meaning that disruptions to these systems will have profound negative impacts on livelihoods, jobs, health and nutrition, and wellbeing more generally. At the global level, it is very alarming that the Amazon forest may soon become a net emitter of carbon dioxide, rather than a potential carbon sink, contributing to climate change and further reducing the resilience of communities and ecosystems.

The final report identifies very feasible policy actions that can mitigate these negative impacts, including:

• Investing in fire prevention and firefighting capacity;
• Incentivizing alternative agricultual practices that are not based on fire; and
• Better land use planning to align agricultural producers and aggregators.

Implementing such policies is critical to conserving forests and biodiversity, ensuring the availability of ecosystem services and keeping people out of poverty, and ultimately to achieving global targets like the World Bank twin goals, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the Paris Climate Agreement.

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).

Program Summary

This PROFOR activity aims to assess the strengths and limitations of Myanmar’s forest sector, with specific emphasis on the National Restoration and Reforestation Program and its community forestry aspects. The Government of Myanmar has issued very clear targets and actions to achieve large scale restoration and reforestation, which form the cornerstone of the national climate change response agenda and Myanmar’s contribution to global climate change mitigation. This activity will be part of a larger country analytical work, the Country Environmental Assessment (CEA), which will contribute to the development of a broad overview of the linkages between environment and development, highlighting the potential role of forestry in enhancing social inclusion and reducing conflict.

Challenge

The exceptional natural resource endowment of Myanmar – from forests, biological diversity, fisheries, and land through hydropower, oil and gas, gems, and minerals – forms the principal source of economic growth and social wellbeing in the country. Nearly 40% of its GDP comes from primary industries including agriculture, forestry and fisheries (ADB Myanmar Diagnostic 2014). However, these resources are under tremendous exploitation pressure, resulting in the highest rate of deforestation in South East Asia (ADB 2015) and loss of nearly 20% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 (EIU April 2017).

Myanmar’s forests have also been home to recent internal ethnic conflicts that were largely located in timber and mineral-rich areas. The underlying causes of the conflict are largely political, but access to natural resources, including timber, has been fought over and sustained Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) over the years. The ongoing peace process has brought large regions under civilian government control. This presents new opportunities for forest management to transform forests over time from a source of conflict to a platform for improving social inclusion, local cooperation and civic engagement.

Approach

The program consisted of activities grouped under two phases:

1. Forest Sector Review:

This phase consisted of a technical literature review, analyzing existing data on the social, conflict, economic and ecological dimensions and trends of forests in Myanmar, as well as on current policy and strategy. Where possible, statistics were applied to evaluate significant relationships among variables within the sector.

a) Forest contribution to rural livelihoods and national economy: This activity included a review of the importance of forests for improving livelihoods and poverty reduction, and their contributions to the economy directly, as well as through other sectors.

b) Forest Smart Interventions: The focus was on assessing the importance of forests to other sectors, and the ecosystem services they provide to contribute to economic productivity and climate resilience of these sectors. On the flip-side, the assessment also reviewed the main drivers of deforestation and aimed to identify solutions to address them and find ways to strengthen the engagement in the forest sector from a programmatic, multi-sectoral and forest smart approach lens.

2. Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program (NRRP) (2017 – 2027) with special focus on community forestry and tenure.

a) Spatial assessment of forests, forest degradation, opportunities for restoration and poverty and conflict related data

This activity mapped the link between forests and poverty and conflict. Spatial data on national forests, historic deforestation, and opportunities for restoration were paired with national poverty data and conflict maps. This activity was executed in partnership with IUCN and other initiatives on poverty and conflicts led by the Asia Foundation and poverty data work by the World Bank.

b) Assessment of community forestry initiatives in Myanmar and its governance and policy aspects

This assessment examined ways that community forestry, non-traditional sources of timber and forest-based livelihood activities are currently recognized within the national (or state and region) policy and regulatory frameworks and identify ways to incentivize community forestry through improved commercial prospects for legally and sustainably community-produced timber and forest products.

c) Overall Assessment of the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program

1. Assessed government institutions involved in the delivery of the Restoration Program, including staffing, incentives, budgets and partnerships. Major focus was on the conflict-affected areas and where social inclusion could be promotoed. 
2. Assessed (and communicated to stakeholders in real time) actual program implementation using an innovative and cost-effective geotagging (geo-enabling) application that used open source and Android operating system and phones/tablets.
3. Analyzed three larger ongoing restoration initiatives (supported by IUCN, ADB and possibly others) related to their technical and implementation arrangements, lessons learned and approaches.
4. Prepared recommendations for the National Reforestation and Forest Rehabilitation Program based on previous assessments of technical opportunities and social priorities, lessons learned and results from the overall governance assessment.

Results

This activity has concluded, with the following results:

• Findings and analysis have  fed into the Myanmar Strategic Country Diagnostic.
• World Bank Operations:
  • The analysis supported by this activity fed into design of the IDA investment project (Forest Restoration, Development and Investment Project (FREDIP) (P168254) and of the investment project targeting community forestry interventions currently under preparation by the Agence Francaise de Developpment.
  • Initial recommendations from the MRRP community forestry assessment allowed the team to propose inclusion of community forestry activities under two other IDA pipeline operations in the conflict affected areas in Myanmar (Peaceful and Prosperous Communities Project (US$200 million) and the Rakhine Development Project (US$100 million).