Title
Confronting the New Climate Normal – Findings from Turn Down the Heat III 907

CHALLENGE

There is growing evidence that the Earth’s atmospheric system is locked in to warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels due to past and predicted emissions of greenhouse gases. As the planet warms, rare climatic conditions - heat and other weather extremes which occur once in hundreds of years - would become the “new climate normal.”

APPROACH

To better understand the possible impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C  and 4°C  warming on agricultural production, water resources, cities, and ecosystems, PROFOR supported the third Turn Down the Heat report that explores ecosystem shifts and impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. PROFOR’s support allowed for greater investigation into forest-specific impacts and for broad dissemination of the findings in those regions.

RESULTS

In Latin America and the Caribbean, heat extremes and changing precipitation patterns will have adverse effects on agricultural productivity, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. In Brazil, at 2°C warming, crop yields could decrease by up to 70 percent for soybean and up to 50 percent for wheat. In the Middle East and North Africa, a large increase in heat-waves combined with warmer average temperatures will put intense pressure on already scarce water resources with major consequences for regional food security. In the Western Balkans and Central Asia, reduced water availability in some places becomes a threat as temperatures rise toward 4°C. Melting glaciers in Central Asia and shifts in the timing of water flows will lead to less water resources in summer months and high risks of torrential floods.

Ecosystem shifts that are projected with increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will significantly diminish ecosystem services. In Russia, boreal forests are at risk of increasing disturbances such as fires and pests, which could lead to widespread tree mortality. Forest dieback and thawing of permafrost in northern Russia threaten to amplify global warming as stored carbon and methane are released into the atmosphere, giving rise to a self-amplifying feedback loop.

In the Amazon rainforest, projected increases in heat and drought stress, together with continuing deforestation, substantially increase the risk of large-scale forest degradation. This could turn this carbon sink of global importance into a source of carbon; this has already been observed as a consequence of the severe droughts in 2005 and 2010 when scientists estimated that the Amazon faced a decrease in carbon storage of approximately 1.6 Pg carbon (2005) and 2.2 Pg carbon (2010) compared to non-drought years.

In sum, the report documents the urgent need to address climate change head on and reverse present trends. It argues that economic development and climate protection can be complementary. The full report, executive summaries and multimedia are available here.  

Turn Down the Heat reports are prepared for the Word Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, provide snapshots of the latest climate science.

For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

 

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Confronting the New Climate Normal – Findings from Turn Down the Heat III 911

CHALLENGE

There is growing evidence that the Earth’s atmospheric system is locked in to warming close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels due to past and predicted emissions of greenhouse gases. As the planet warms, rare climatic conditions - heat and other weather extremes which occur once in hundreds of years - would become the “new climate normal.”

APPROACH

To better understand the possible impacts of present day (0.8°C), 2°C  and 4°C  warming on agricultural production, water resources, cities, and ecosystems, PROFOR supported the third Turn Down the Heat report that explores ecosystem shifts and impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. PROFOR’s support allowed for greater investigation into forest-specific impacts and for broad dissemination of the findings in those regions.

RESULTS

In Latin America and the Caribbean, heat extremes and changing precipitation patterns will have adverse effects on agricultural productivity, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. In Brazil, at 2°C warming, crop yields could decrease by up to 70 percent for soybean and up to 50 percent for wheat. In the Middle East and North Africa, a large increase in heat-waves combined with warmer average temperatures will put intense pressure on already scarce water resources with major consequences for regional food security. In the Western Balkans and Central Asia, reduced water availability in some places becomes a threat as temperatures rise toward 4°C. Melting glaciers in Central Asia and shifts in the timing of water flows will lead to less water resources in summer months and high risks of torrential floods.

Ecosystem shifts that are projected with increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns will significantly diminish ecosystem services. In Russia, boreal forests are at risk of increasing disturbances such as fires and pests, which could lead to widespread tree mortality. Forest dieback and thawing of permafrost in northern Russia threaten to amplify global warming as stored carbon and methane are released into the atmosphere, giving rise to a self-amplifying feedback loop.

In the Amazon rainforest, projected increases in heat and drought stress, together with continuing deforestation, substantially increase the risk of large-scale forest degradation. This could turn this carbon sink of global importance into a source of carbon; this has already been observed as a consequence of the severe droughts in 2005 and 2010 when scientists estimated that the Amazon faced a decrease in carbon storage of approximately 1.6 Pg carbon (2005) and 2.2 Pg carbon (2010) compared to non-drought years.

In sum, the report documents the urgent need to address climate change head on and reverse present trends. It argues that economic development and climate protection can be complementary. The full report, executive summaries and multimedia are available here.  

Turn Down the Heat reports are prepared for the Word Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, provide snapshots of the latest climate science.

For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

 

Read More
Congo Basin Timber 288

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

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Congo Basin Timber 299

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

Read More
Congo Basin Timber 715

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

Read More
Congo Basin Timber 779

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

Read More
Congo Basin Timber 855

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

Read More
Congo Basin Timber 909

CHALLENGE

Population growth and economic development are contributing to rising demand for wood and wood
products in Africa, offering new opportunities for local producers to tap domestic markets, and also with profound implications for the forests of the Congo Basin.


APPROACH

Much work has been carried out on the informal and formal logging sector in the Congo Basin region; this study focuses on wood transformation and examining local demand for processed wood products. This research aims to build on prior knowledge to better understand the solutions needed to overcome barriers to expanding the market for legal (and sustainable) timber and processed wood products used in the domestic furniture and construction markets in Cameroon and DRC. Through data collection and analysis, new knowledge was developed regarding the current and future capacities of timber companies to provide wood for public buildings, housing and furniture for the domestic market. In addition, the analysis looks at how wood is currently sourced, and, if not sourced domestically, why. This will help gauge the potential to grow the productive use of wood in these countries. To this end, options for policies and targeted investments to increase the proportion of domestic, locally sourced wood have been identified.


RESULTS
The final report Congo Basin Timber: Case studies of urban wood products markets in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon was completed in June 2016. This work undertook supply and demand-side analysis for wood products. Local factors which can be capitalized on and considered opportunities include population and GDP growth, urbanization, a growing middle class, and increasing domestic demand for timber. In the short-to-medium term, development of the timber industry can be furthered through a range of action, including: supporting training and tools for better quality products; creating cooperatives to federate artisanal operators; promoting local wood products and innovative craftsmanship; sponsoring the use of local and legally-sourced wood for tourism infrastructure. In the medium-to-long term, the report recommends interventions such as creating structural paneling factories; providing a wide range in product prices; regulating taxes to favor local products; and making “local and legal” wood a national cause.
For stories and updates on related activities, follow us on Twitter and Facebook, or subscribe to our mailing list for regular updates

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Decentralization in Forestry 340

Perspectives from Guatemala, the Philippines and Zimbabwe

Throughout the world, local and regional governments are becoming increasingly involved in forest-related issues. In some cases such growing dynamism reflects government policies designed to decentralize forest governance and forest management. In other cases it reflects initiatives of local and regional governments themselves, including communities living in and surrounding forest areas, and the increasing power, leverage and resources they have.

In light of this trend, the Governments of Switzerland and Indonesia and CIFOR organized a country-led initiative on experiences with decision-making in decentralizing in Interlaken, Switzerland, on April 26-30, 2004. 

The workshop considered how to effectively incorporate the participation of large and diverse groups in national forest program or similar processes.

To contribute to the dialogue at the workshop, PROFOR sponsored a Community Round Table discussion where challenges related to decentralization at the community level were discussed. Through case studies from Guatemala, Zimbabwe and the Philippines, the round table looked at:

  • managing shifts in power balances,
  • how the voices of local people are heard (or not)
  • and decentralized protected area management.

Perspectives from Guatemala, the Philippines and Zimbabwe

 

Throughout the world, local and regional governments are becoming increasingly involved in forest-related issues. In some cases such growing dynamism reflects government policies designed to decentralize forest governance and forest management. In other cases it reflects initiatives of local and regional governments themselves, including communities living in and surrounding forest areas, and the increasing power, leverage and resources they have.

In light of this trend, the Governments of Switzerland and Indonesia and CIFOR organized a country-led initiative on experiences with decision-making in decentralizing in Interlaken, Switzerland,Ă‚ on April 26-30, 2004.Ă‚ 

The workshop considered how to effectively incorporate the participation of large and diverse groups in national forest program or similar processes.

To contribute to the dialogue at the workshop, PROFOR sponsored a Community Round Table discussion where challenges related to decentralization at the community level were discussed. Through case studies from Guatemala, Zimbabwe and the Philippines, the round table looked at:

  • managing shifts in power balances,
  • how the voices of local people are heard (or not)
  • and decentralized protected area management.
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Decentralization in Forestry 425

Perspectives from Guatemala, the Philippines and Zimbabwe

Throughout the world, local and regional governments are becoming increasingly involved in forest-related issues. In some cases such growing dynamism reflects government policies designed to decentralize forest governance and forest management. In other cases it reflects initiatives of local and regional governments themselves, including communities living in and surrounding forest areas, and the increasing power, leverage and resources they have.

In light of this trend, the Governments of Switzerland and Indonesia and CIFOR organized a country-led initiative on experiences with decision-making in decentralizing in Interlaken, Switzerland, on April 26-30, 2004. 

The workshop considered how to effectively incorporate the participation of large and diverse groups in national forest program or similar processes.

To contribute to the dialogue at the workshop, PROFOR sponsored a Community Round Table discussion where challenges related to decentralization at the community level were discussed. Through case studies from Guatemala, Zimbabwe and the Philippines, the round table looked at:

  • managing shifts in power balances,
  • how the voices of local people are heard (or not)
  • and decentralized protected area management.

Perspectives from Guatemala, the Philippines and Zimbabwe

 

Throughout the world, local and regional governments are becoming increasingly involved in forest-related issues. In some cases such growing dynamism reflects government policies designed to decentralize forest governance and forest management. In other cases it reflects initiatives of local and regional governments themselves, including communities living in and surrounding forest areas, and the increasing power, leverage and resources they have.

In light of this trend, the Governments of Switzerland and Indonesia and CIFOR organized a country-led initiative on experiences with decision-making in decentralizing in Interlaken, Switzerland,Ă‚ on April 26-30, 2004.Ă‚ 

The workshop considered how to effectively incorporate the participation of large and diverse groups in national forest program or similar processes.

To contribute to the dialogue at the workshop, PROFOR sponsored a Community Round Table discussion where challenges related to decentralization at the community level were discussed. Through case studies from Guatemala, Zimbabwe and the Philippines, the round table looked at:

  • managing shifts in power balances,
  • how the voices of local people are heard (or not)
  • and decentralized protected area management.
Read More