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Economic Growth and Drivers of Deforestation in the Congo Basin

LAST UPDATED 09.14.2011

CHALLENGE
Though the deforestation rates in the Congo Basin countries have historically been low, the trend is likely to change dramatically due to the combination of many different factors: demographic growth (and associated expansion of subsistence agriculture and fuelwood collection); and the development of the industrial, agriculture, transport, mining and energy sectors.

Meanwhile, Congo Basin countries acknowledge that they are missing critical robust analytical tools to help their decision-makers better understand how the development of economic sectors can affect the forest cover, and to strengthen their position in the international arena with regards to negotiations on REDD+.
 

APPROACH
PROFOR supported an in-depth, multi-sectoral analysis, led by the World Bank Africa Region, of the major drivers of deforestation and forest degradation for the next decades in all six of the Congo Basin countries (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Republic of Congo). It defined methodological tools to help in developing forward-looking national scenarios, based on different development trajectories. 

The analysis was not expected to help predict the future of the Congo Basin forests but rather to provide the governments of the six countries with a robust analytical tool to better understand the potential impacts of development of other sectors on the forest.

 
MAIN FINDINGS
A regional model allowed Congo basin countries to quantify the impact of “policy shocks”, such as (i) increase by 15% of meat demand at the international level by 2030, and (ii) increase of the international biofuels demand by 15% by 2030. Those shocks are likely to have significant impacts on forest loss in the Congo Basin. However, it seems that the Congo Basin would be less affected than the South-East Asia tropical forests and the Amazonian tropical forests. Moreover, the impacts would rather be indirect.
 
For instance, under the policy shock on meat demand, it is very unlikely that livestock would significantly increase in the Congo Basin. However, the development of pastures in the Amazon in response to this demand would create a leakage of some crops from the Amazon to the Congo Basin (“substitution effect”).
 
Under the Biofuel policy shock, similarly, the direct impact is not likely to be very important despite the fact that most of the countries have already been approached by some investors to develop palm oil plantations. It seems that the Congo basin countries have a great potential in terms of land suitability for such plantations but that poor infrastructure and governance remain major constraints to large-scale plantation developments.
 
The model also examined the impact of rehabilitation of road networks in the Congo Basin.  It found that roads largely impact the forest cover mainly because of agricultural expansion and better connections to markets.
 
RESULTS
The results from the modeling exercise were shared at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties 15 in Copehagen, and presented at the World Bank in January 2010 ("SDN week") and at a regional Ministerial workshop in Kinshasa in October 2010. So far, the findings of this knowledge activity have helped Congo Basin countries better understand the diversity of factors of deforestation. 
 
Back in 2007 these countries mainly considered that logging activities were the major drivers of deforestation in the Congo Basin. They now understand that deforestation can be driven by sectors other than forestry (including Agriculture, Mining, Energy, Infrastructure). It is also better known that deforestation can be driven – even indirectly- by external factors (such as commodity prices and global demand for agricultural products). 
 
The knowledge generated from this activity (as well as related activity such as the McKinsey report in DRC) is critically important for the Congo Basin countries as they are preparing their REDD+ strategies.